I overheard a group of seemingly intelligent people on the C gate tram today talking about how a certain video poker machine gave this guy several 4 cards to the royal throughout the session. They seemed to agree that the machine was about to hit a royal. Just before I raised the BS flag in my head, I remembered that I have several excessively credulous beliefs myself. They were talking about paytables and % of paybacks enough that I could tell they were not rookies.

Do you think 4 to a royal or 3 deuces or almost getting anything is any indication that a machine is about to hit?

I have only had two royals where I had a strong gut feeling my draw card(s) would fill it in. I have had that same gut feeling maybe 10 other times that didn't work. Most of my royals are out of the blue and blindside me.

i seem to have a winning session when i am getting a lot of natural pairs on the deal i do get that warm fuzzy feeling when i am drawing with all the deucs in the machine.all of the 4 deucs i have hit have been early in the count,about a dozen times, and i do not get any type of "tell"

I've heard that "about to hit" belief many times but I don't believe it. These games are purely random draws of cards (or they're supposed to be!) and I have to believe just that - each hand is a random draw independent of the other and what happens on one hand has no effect on the next.

Hmmm,
I feel I have a chance when I see repeated 3 and 4 to the royals show up on my machine. Or 3 of the 4 dueces. Beleive me, there are times I'm playing dueces, and I swear someone took the 2's out of the deck on the computer screen! So it's always nice to see close hands pop up. But due???? I don't know about that one.
I do feel good about a certin machine when it's on a roll, many small hits, with a chance or 2 at a big banana (as JMT calls it). So do I think Machines get hot....yeah, but they get cold too, and it's random.
I think drawing 4 dueces is a very good sign that you'll have a winning session! LOL

I beleive attitude, is everything when you play. I know sometimes I swear the machine is out to get me....and it usually does on those times.

Unlike Jean Scott, I don't beleive one machine is as good as the next so long as the paytables are the same. I have favorite machines, so in some way, I beleive certine machines are luckier then others....for me. So I am not without superstitions, the way i see it.

I know drawing 3 or 4 to the royal makes you more alert. That alone can make you play better (pay attention)and maybe in some small way increase you chances for a royal.
M2C

I agree with Lee by saying I believe that some machines are luckier than others. Whether there's validity to that, I don't know. But that means I have superstitions too!

One last thing - I do believe when you see a progressive that hasn't hit for a while, it is due to hit. On average, royals are supposed to hit every 40,000 hands so if the progressive has gotten very large, you know the royal hasn't hit in a while and the odds are that it will hit soon. And as you all know, I like to chase royals!

I still believe it's a numbers game.
I believe that the RNG is exactly that, random.
I believe that the chance of hitting a Royal is the same whether the machine had one the previous hand or a million hands ago.
If you're flipping a coin and heads comes up ten times in a row, is tails due? Nope it's still a 50/50

I have favorite machines too.

I have also been known to chase a high progressive. But I have a problem with them too. On one hand we say it's completely random, on the other we say the quarter progressive is over $2500, so it's due. Now rewind to the videos we have all seen on roulette and those little signs that show the last 12 numbers. They tell us it's a sucker bet to bet on black just because the last 12 spins were red. Or flipping a coin, where each flip is random and unrelated to any previous flips. Combine that with the fact that a progressive is at least a bank of machines and is often several banks throughout the casino. Suppose there are 10 on that progressive. Suppose 6 of those machines hit the last 12 progressives. That might mean 4 of those machines are beating the odds like crazy and "due" to hit right now. The problem is first you can't look at the progressive jackpot to determine that, second you don't which machines (if any) are over ripe, and finally go back to each draw is random. Again I chase progressives myself and I'm not trying to change anyones mind. It is sort of a devils advocate/superstition thing.

I've played a lot of video poker in the last few years. I've read many of the guides and tutorials on how to play. My current opinion of them is hogwash. There is certainly nothing wrong with stacking as much odds in your favor as you can. BUT, I am a firm believer in hit and run, and I don't pay that close attention to paytables if it's just one or two credits here or there.

The books talk about long term odds. As far as I am concerned, my long term odds are only as long as that one session on that one machine I am currently playing. I think the machine itself has it's own odds that are much more averaged out than I will ever be. And if that's true, the paytable is even less of a factor.

One more factor on the machines odds. Just because it hit a royal, it may be very overdue for various quads. That may falsely lead you one way or another if it is a progressive.

It sure is hard for me organize all of my superstitions. And they really get in the way of the facts. Maybe having fun is the key.

what we are taking about here is what the odds are when in fact a lot of it is called the degree of probability.using the royal example-to say that the odds are the same on hitting a royal again on the next hand is not true when in fact you are saying what are the odds of hitting two in a row.what are the "odds" of hitting three in a row,40000 to one? i doubt it more like a bajjilion to one.i believe there is a mathamaticle formula to figure the degree of probability.any math majors out there?

Regarding the Random Number Generator. That's what it is called, but if you study computers, you will learn that's not really the case. A computer RNG is an oxymoron.

A computer can not pick a random number. A programmer can write a set of instructions for it to do a task and end up with a number. If the programer writes a simple algorithm (task of number crunching) to come up with an answer, it is "relatively" easy to figure out the pattern. If the programmer writes a more complex code, it would be harder to crack. The more complex the code, the slower the computer operates.

Perhaps you have seen a TV show called "Breaking Vegas" where a guy on the Nevada Gaming Control Board named Ron Harris cheated slots by figuring out a certain coin drop sequence for a big payout. He was eventually busted figuring out Keno numbers in Atlantic City. He did it because he understood the code.

There is much more involved and the average you or I wont ever crack the easiest code. The codes are probably stronger today than back then.

Just another fun fact to fuel superstitions.

Here how that has affected me. I play a lot of deuces machines, not just the ones at Hooters. It "seems" to me that there is a pattern of sorts for the deuces to come out. They do not seem random. It seems that deuces pop up here and there for a while, then there is a series of maybe 8 hands where 1, 2 or 3 deuces come up in most of those hands. Then they go away and pop up here and there again for a while. (maybe 20-30 hands) Then they come up again for most hands in a short spell, then they go sporadic again.

I think the fact of how the RNG works created a superstition in my mind to notice the times where there seems to be a pattern and ignore the times it does not. In my own little corrupt mind I feel that the deuces get bunched up for a while and redistributed on a semi regular basis that is anything but random.

One reason a royal may be "due"....

There's a point on a progressive where your playing strategy should change and you should go for the royal when you otherwise wouldn't. This should make the royal more likely to hit.

Let me ask of all or any of you this!
Why do you always see a bunch of machines that often go unplayed unless there are no others open?
It doesn't seem to be just VP machines nor the lure of a certain fun slot it might be all of a same type machine or just certain like slots? No one ever wants to play them, just certain machines.
Is it due to their never hitting or what...I tend to think that it is because no one ever wins on them! We all tend to play often the machine that has been good to us...These were not good to anyone?....

Lets hope the answer is that they're 'short-pay' machines and everyone in the casino is an educated gambler and knows to play other machines.

I personally like older machines. If they where of the same type, but some where older, I'd play the older ones. I like the older triple play machines.

It just might be that on a bank of several machines only one or two are set to give winning hands more times than the others..........even if small wins. Seems to me that is the case more often than not. People, as Irishmick said, gravitate to those machines. Most likely, because they win more often or at least have a fighting chance that their money will last longer. There may be no logic to my statement, but it sure seems to happen that way. The casino is giving the proper % back but on an average.

Beth