I'm just wondering what the rest of the talkvegas'ers think about this....

It seems while Vegas & the travel industry in general is quick to point out that things are back to normal now, are they really?

I maen look at the recent comment by the Mayor of LV, worried about people staying away from LV because of the wacko claiming he heard voices.
It seems to me the travel industry is saying everything is back to normal, to make people feel at ease about getting back to traveling again. But I don't think we are really there yet or anywhere close to getting back to normal.

Looking over the recent offers I've gotten in the mail from casinos, and the e-mail offers and even Phil Feldmens list of adds for the LA paper. It just doesn't add up. Like be sent offers for discounted rooms or free rooms on the 4th of July weekend. Folks the 4th of July is a big money maker for Vegas this year, because it falls on a Thgursday, making it a four night holiday for some. An easy LV trip for those from California. No sir, it just doesn't add up!

So what do the rest of you think????

Lee, I agree - I don't think we are where we were pre-9/11 but I do think that things have improved. People are not as sure of themselves - the stock market, unemployment, and the terrist threats - but realistically I think we are a strong people and we will make it, slow but sure. There is alot of 3rd world countries out there with a lot of "have nots" - on the other hand, we are the "haves" and it makes for alot of bitter jealously and there are alot of people out there who do not like us because of that. While we cannot solve all of the worlds proverty, recent events have made us more alert, and definately security conscience. The workload of our politicians has definately increased but keep in mind that we are a resourceful and determined people and in the long run, we will prevail. Those are my thoughts anyway. See ya next week - Wendell

Lee, my sense of it, is that Vegas continues to thrive compared to other vacation destinations. For example the caribbean tourist industry has been significantly hurting economically since 9/11. The problem may be, as you pointed out with the unusual discounts, is that the projected growth in tourism that Vegas counts on to support expansion, new towers ect. is off, plenty of business, but there are rooms not booked.

From the nature of the room discount details, it seems the more desirable newer towers are being asked for and booked, but there is a void with older less expensive towers which could explain the location specific deep discounts.

I agree with Wedell's comments. As Lynn Cheney, the wife of the Vice President and of very capable inellect in her own right, said in an interview about terrorism, what it comes down to is a resentment of America's success.

With regard to the latest threat hoax, i think the media was irresponsible in reporting that story before it was checked out.

Lee, I have mixed emotions. Things have certainly picked up in the travel industry. I don't think we could ever have the "normal" that we once knew.

Planes are carrying respectable loads which tell me things are improving.

USAirways and United are both skirting bankruptcy closer than ever, which indicates things are not good.

A few years ago there were only a few hotels in Vegas that would be over $79 for a standard room. Most strip rooms were in the $29-49 range. Nowadays, I get "special" e-mails from Paris for $79. We have many more than rooms in Vegas than we did a few years ago and the room rates have jumpped a solid $30 across the board. Yes there are sporadic specials. It seems to me that there are enough people going to Vegas keep the extra rooms filled at much higher rate on a regular basis.

Media reports say that vacationers are taking vacations closer to home than normal. I'm not sure what that means as an idicator.

I have friends that get off cruise ships this year are being asked to ride the ship going back at a very deep discount. They are also being offered deep discounts to just book another cruise. Me, I'm not a boat guy, so I'm not sure if this is normal or not. My friends say these discounts are unheard of.

As for me, the events of 9-11 were tragic news. I never saw the reason the country came to a halt. My life hasn't changed much except I got a great deal on a new car, refinanced my house at a great rate, etc. Maybe if I watched CNN they would tell me to panic.

I would say things are back to normal. I guess a big piece of the puzzle is determining what normal is.
I don't really think the pre-9/11 business in Vegas was normal, it seemed to be busier than normal. As JMT said the great deals we used to see all the time were pretty much gone. The deals I'm seeing now are what I remember as normal just 3-4 years ago.

If I go by plane loads since 9/11, most of our flights have been either full or only had one or two seats available. I have noticed that each flight has been able to accomadate 3 or 4 standby passengers. I don't recall noticing the gate personel calling for standby passengers as often before.

Lake Tahoe seemed to be pretty busy when we were there. Reservations were still required for several attractions and the nicer restaurants. We had 30 to 45 minute waits at some of the less-than-fine-dining restaurants even.

Back to normal? Perhaps. Have they caught up from the losses they suffered initially? I doubt it. It will take a long time to recover the money lost those first few months after 9/11.

Some people have tried to draw LV answers from local gaming across the country. I went to Shreveport Louisiana this past weekend. The casinos in that area are popping up all over the place. A few years ago there were 3 major casinos. Today, there are 5 major ones, with various types of gaming in other smaller places. 8 more major casinos are either under construction or have applications in the works.

From the Saturday newspaper in Shreveport, I found these interesting items.

Casino Magic, the smallest of the big 5 is changing it's name to Boomtown. In doing so, it has a huge new sign that would rival many Las Vegas Strip casinos. The sign is very tall, has a large marquee area, jumbotrons, backlit promotions, animations, and everything else you would expect in Vegas. Casino Magic/Boomtown is spending money like there is no tomorrow. In addition to the Boomtown name, the waitresses are called Boomtown Babes, the margaritas, are called Boomaritas, and there is $35 million of other renovation/promotional cosmetics that they hope will get them out of 5th place. BTW, the cocktail waiters (men serving drinks on the casino floor) are called Boomtown Boys. What they really need is rooms since they run 100% occupancy and turn away over 100,000 reservations per year.

Hollywood casino, number 3 on the charts, has been in a downhill slide. They also have casinos in the Tunica and Chicago area markets. Shares of stock trading at $16.49 a few months ago hit a low of $9.50 in June, and is only on a small rebound because they are for sale.

Isle Of Capri, the fourth largest is planning an RV park.

The State of Louisiana has millions of grant money to give to casinos that are showing positive growth. The most qualified would be the Horseshoe which is in the number 1 spot. After further review, it seems the Horseshoe has some accounting irregularities that would rival Enron and Wolrdcom making number 2 Harrahs the best contender.

What I got from all of this (which is just from one saturday local newspaper) is that the industry is booming and the casinos are investing in themselves to make Shreveport a real time Boom Town.

The locals tell me that the casinos are packed with Texans every day. A $10 bus fare will get them on a chartered coach from the Dallas area to Shreveport and back. It's a 3 hour ride. I drove my car there for non-casino activities. I would have been disappointed if I had been expecting anything out of the casinos. It's just not Vegas. You would have to really want to gamble (with less than Vegas odds) to want to go to Shreveport area casinos. You wouldn't want to go there to see a show, eat a buffet, find a bargain, or even people watch.

The only gambling I did on this trip was a $10 bill in a multigame VP machine. There were two machines in a room slightly larger than a telephone booth, inside the hotel bar. I played the $10 up and down about 20 minutes and finally got down to zero credits. The odds on the machine were really poor. Payout is on a printed reciept that the bartender cashes out. It only takes 4 of the 8 coins in to get max payout for the royal, while the lesser hands keep increasing. And most interesting is that the machine automatically selects the hold cards for each hand. They can manually be deselected if you want to hold different cards. Otherwise just keep hitting the same button over and over until the credits read zero. I found the game slightly entertaining with all the differences from Vegas VP.

Doug,
I don't really know if you can judge by planes and how full they are. In my local area I have 4 airports to fly out of. Of those 4 all have scaled back late flights out. Philly having the least amount nad are coming back with later flights on United and American, but slowly! So less flights mean the ones remaining are going to be full.
I see more people spending money at home or close to home.
I also beleive Vegas has something special that will make it bounce back quicker then most other tourist desetations. But it's still hurting, and not rushing to hire back those laid off either. I can see them having trouble selling the older rooms as the big hook is all that is bright & shiney and new in Vegas.
I don't beleive Vegas will ever recover the loss it experinced after 9/11. It might bounce back, but people are not saving the Vegas money to go at a later date, they are spending it close to home. Instaed of that caribbean vacation, they are buying pools and air conditioners, and picnicing and boating and taking driving vacations more.
I don't think CNN or the other TV stations helped the airline industry at all by showing the planes hitting those buildings every 10 seconds from every possible angle. But hey it was news, and news is ratings and we all know that is what sells papers & TV spots & magazines.
JMT, I have yet to find anyplace like Vegas. So much so, I don't even look anymore.

Lee, I agree with just about everything in your post , especially about the number of plane flights cut down, resulting in fuller planes.

Has Vegas recovered? A relative works in the casino industry in Vegas, and she chatted with us about the staff changes that took place in her facilitiy - the people that lost jobs. We're not talking just the floor personnel, but the managers, middle and upper managers. The casino figured how to "tighten their belts' and reconfigure the management - there is no talk of rehiring those managers, no matter how many visitors return. And a lot of the other casinos are following suit.

As far as the incessant footage of the planes on 9/11 - yes, it was hard to see that again and again. But I think it was almost necessary for the reality of the event to sink into our understanding (as much as we can ever understand it)

People who were afraid to fly before won't fly now. But I think the majority of folks are spending closer to home (as you described) because of the economy, not fear of flying.

Sad thing is - people taking trips closer to home can mean more fatalities, since driving is so much more dangerous than flying. Last week a tour bus driver fell asleep outside of Rochester and went off the road, killing 5 people in the bus (unfortunately he had spent his weekend sleep time gambling in Casino Niagara - had slept 3 1/2 hours in 3 days!)
But you don't see people afraid to drive for vacation.

Vegas will survive of course. Like a lot of other industries, it may find itself in a forced position of "slimming down."

I will be really interested to hear from the veterans how the 4th of July weekend is in Vegas. With all the "new" "warnings' that could be real indication of how its going

kes

The upcoming offering of Wynn Resorts stock will be a good barometer of how vegas is doing. At least as perceived by potential investors.

CN,
I todays climate, would you be real quick to invest in a casino on a large scale if you had the money to do so???
I don't think I'd be ready to roll the dice on that one.

Kestal,
I also agree with you, I'll take flying over driving any day! Got a Columbus trip coming up, yes it's drivable, but I'll fly instead. Any trip with more then 4 hours of driving time equals flight for me. Even if the whole act of flying takes longer then the total drive time, it's still better if I fly, for me.

Lee, I heard you can get great rates on America West as of this morning. Of course you have to bring your own drinks onto the plane since they can't seem to find any of the booze that was stocked on the plane. Wonder where it went?<G>

I don't think that things are as before; Why??
.I am receiving offers and calls twice as often to visit "Las Vegas" as I did prior to this mess!I think that we would be invited and comped at least every other month, if we could afford the air??
.Airfare is still about 20% higher than before?
.The Stock Market is taking it in the shorts still; thus making many of us think twice before spending our meager bankrolls on fun and frolic!
.The optimisim is now not quite the same as we all felt before..I think it can be felt??
.Damn...This was supposed to be my easy time of life.......

Well said irish. The recent beating in the stock market will take its toll on Vegas. Look at Mandalay. The stock was $36.30 on May 3rd. Now its $26.60. Multiply that by 68 million shares and we are talking about $660 Million of "value" wiped out. To me, that says the sellers "know" business will weaken.

And the airline stocks have been killed. There will have to be cutbacks in flights or these companies are going to go bankrupt. Oil around $27 a barrel isn't helping.

I find a lot of comments I agree with here ... and a couple of thoughts I don't agree with<g>.

I've always said that I'm a moderate gambler in casinos and do my big gambling in the stock market. As primarily a quarter VP player, I'm getting a lot more offers now than I received a year ago. Strangely, the free rooms offers are about the same (thank gawd for Sam's Town!), but I'm getting more $29-$89 offers from places like the Gold Coast, Bally's, Paris, Bellagio, Palm, Luxor, NYNY, Flamingo and LV Hilton ... offers which aren't really justified by my play at these properties.

As for investing in casino stocks ...yes, Lee, I did put some money in last week. It wasn't with Mandalay however<g>. I have been and still am turned off by Mandalay's P/E ratio. Even now at $26, the P/E is still 33. It's a pity I don't have the courage to short stocks because Mandalay might have been on my list this year. Just for kicks, I looked at some one-year charts; Mandalay, Aztar and Stations are about even, and Isle, Harrahs and Boyd are all ahead of last July ... wish the rest of the stock market was looking so good!

Amen, Daisy!

This one for JMT: I have never understood how Southwest always has a profit when all the others say they are loosing dollars (or is this just a fabrication) Maybe there is nothing wrong with the market - its just the people who may be stealing the money - no one wants to contribute to a thief. What say you JMT?? Wendell