I'm not a stock analyst by any means but with the economy sliding into a sink-hole and all our concerns about the future of Las Vegas, I've figured it might be an entertaining idea to keep track of Wynn stock to see how and if it goes hand in hand with our current day thoughts of our favorite place to visit.

It is interesting to note that Director John Moran of Wynn Resorts purchased 20,000 shares of stock on June 26, 2008. The total cost was $1.7 million, roughly $84.80 a share.

Year-to-date Wynn stock is down 29.3 percent as the gaming sector has been affected by a weakening economy, causing less travel to Las Vegas.

With Wynn shares near a 52-week low, Moran may see them as a value. According to Thomson Reuters, historically Wynn shares have an average gain of 80.4 percent in the six months following his last four stock purchases.

Supplied with the above information, I have decided to keep track of Mr Moran's investment and see if it turns a profit or not.

This could be very interesting to track providing I know what I'm doing and come to the correct conclusions. Any expert help out there is appreciated.

I am using the closing information (as I see it) as provided at the following site:
http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:WYNNt

Date # of shares $ per Share Total Purchase Gain/Loss
6/26/08 20,000 $ 85.00 $1,700,000
7/08/08 20,000 $ 83.50 (close) $1,670,000 $ 30,000 loss

Will do my best to keep this updated, but any help is appreciated.

I am anxious to see how the opening of new hotel (Encore) will affect the stock. I anticipate a sharp but temporary increase. PS ... I know just about nothing about the stock market and this will be a new experience. -

One kicker with your Wynn stock, Will - Wynn, MGM and Las Vegas Sands are all in line for some big bucks over in Macao, so none of those stocks will necesarrily give you an accurate picture of the Las Vegas gambling scene.

FWIW, Wynn is doing better than Boyd - which is off close to 80% in the last year or so.

Thanks again, Daisy.

I understand that Wynn Resorts expects second-quarter operating income in Macau to double and Las Vegas operating income to drop by more than 50% to the $18 million to $22 million range from last year's $63.4 million.

This was apparently the big reason why Wynn stock went up 11% yesterday.

BUT how the heck can Wynn Las Vegas reduce its operating income from $63.4 million in 2007 down to 18 to 22 million this year? That's a big drop!

And what exactly is operating INCOME? Don't they mean operating EXPENSE?

Will, I'm not exactly sure where you're going with this and why you picked Wynn. I'll bet I know a lot less than you about the stock market, so I plan to watch and learn. Another kicker to Wynn stock might be how devoted Steve is to his Las Vegas resorts.

Local buzz is about the governor and budget and how that is impacted by gaming revenues which are down about 15%. I don't much about that either, except it seems those revenues are taxable and those taxes influence the budget. I have a ton of info on the governor though. I don't think he is focused.

Thanks for initiating this project. I am curious to see how Wynn follows the local economy or vice versa.

I think our local economy is in line with the national problems such as gas, corn, futures, etc. Those impact the casinos here just as it impacts the car makers in Detroit or the farmers in the midwest. I don't know if any casino stocks can be fixed without fixing the national economy. OTOH, Las Vegas is excellent at reinventing itself to adapt to changes. We'll see if/how Wynn and others pull it off.

JMT, I'm actually not too sure where I'm heading with this either but it all came about when I read a report that one of the Wynn executives purchased 20,000 shares of Wynn Resorts for $1,700,000 recently.

I thought that this was a rather bad time to purchase stock of any sort in LV and decided that a Wynn executive might have some awareness of the stock appreciating during a downward market so I thought that it might be a good idea to keep track.

Daisy and others have bought it to my attention that Wynn stock performance is also tied to the Macau Wynn operation which I believe can keep Wynn Las Vegas from suffering as much as those LV casinos who do not have an Asian location.

SO I may be off track here comparing the LV economy with Wynn stock but I plan to keep it up and report it here periodically to see if we can come to an intelligent conclusion about something pertaining to stock prices and the economy (maybe).

I have been advised that it would be more reasonable to simply track Boyd Gaming Corp. (BYD) which specializes in the Las Vegas locals market only and is in the process of building its multibillion dollar Echelon property - presently offered at $9.28 a share. I'll check this one occasionally too.

Here is some good new information which I recently learned about:

3.4 million people visited Las Vegas in May (no big change there - an INCREASE of 15,000 visitors compared to May of 2007)........
But there was a 15% decline in the amount of money they lost in the casinos.

The conclusion here is that people are still going to LV but they are spending less money and going home sooner..... 2 day stays instead of 3 day stays, etc

And those 3.4 million visitors arrived in a fewer number of cars than normal (6.4% fewer to be exact). I assume that that means those kind folks in Los Angeles and Phoenix are sharing rides.

And there was a 4.7% drop in airline passengers, so it appears that a lot of people were sharing rides.

Hotel managers are keeping rooms occupied by offering gas cards (I got one of these in Reno - $50!), limo service, and golf discounts. (No mention of lowered room rates, but maybe that it taken for granted.)

END .................

Are you familiar with the story on July 3 about the new Sr. Vice Presidents of Strategy and Development at the WynnDot? Along with about a gazillion "what ifs" it certainly adds to the excitement about WD stock. I'm not fond of the move but it could easily be the spark of a new Las Vegas. It could also signal the demise of the Wynn as we know it.

Thanks, JMT. I did some Googleizing and got the following info ......

Tim Poster and Tom Breitling will be joining Wynn Resorts as Sr. Vice Presidents of Strategy and Development.

They pioneered the online travel industry with the development and sale of Travelscape to Expedia.

Shortly after selling Travelscape they acquired the Golden Nugget and renovated it.

Their collective experiences and their entrepreneurial drive, make them ideally suited to assist Wynn as it prepares for another period of substantial growth and change.

"This is a very exciting time for our company as we prepare to expand both here in Las Vegas and in Asia," noted Steve Wynn. "Until now, we've only been limited by our human capital and our limited capacity to design, develop and operate resorts that live up to our standards. With the addition of Tim and Tom to our leadership team we have both improved our opportunities for success with our existing ventures and enhanced our ability to pursue new ones."

Thanks again, ,JMT. Do you have any insight on how Tim and Tom will be producing changes? It does appear that Mr Wynn is taking aggressive steps during troubled times. But apparently there are no problems in Macau.

It is a very strange deal to me. Steve Wynn is so calm and cool and pitch a proposal that nobody can refuse. He is an awesome salesman. He could make you believe anything. He is a visionary. If he were a religious leader, he could be dangerous. In my opinion, Tim and Tom are loose cannons. When they took over the Nugget, they had a TV show about the Nugget that I never saw. They probably wrote books I never read either. What I do know is that they are in touch with the public. They know pop culture.

So T&T and Steve are on opposite ends of the spectrum. I just don't see how they can blend together. It's not like salt and pepper. It's more like oil and water. I just don't see them as business partners. Example, Steve Wynn kept the Golden Nugget pristine. All the marble and brass looked perfect. Walls and ceilings were painted white and kept clean even in the smoking areas. Highly polished, fresh, and clean. When T&T took over, they covered up a lot of the casino white with wood and dark colors. It wasn't a dump, but it lost a step or two in class. T&T just weren't on the same page as Steve.

Here is how I see the future. Steve built the WynnDot to be the ultimate resort. The hotel tower is split down the middle with suites on one side and rooms on the other. My guess is that the high rollers don't like the common people that fill the other half. So he will build Encore to cater to the asians and big dogs and it will be the way WD was supposed to be. Then he can leave the WD to be a peoples palace run by two guys that understand the people.

Still, it comes back to oil and water. There has been very logical thinking that maybe Steve could make a bundle on Encore and Macau and not have to worry about the ole WD if he just sold it off to "someone". Or maybe he is looking for T&T to make it profitable for him. The bottom line is that Steve is not a business dummy and WD is not making money. I don't think he wants to deal with it any more.

Above is interesting, JMT. I tend to agree with your thoughts and look forward to see how accurate this could be within the next few months.

Right now at 3:07 PM ET, Wynn is selling at $77.77 and changing up and down by pennies every few minutes. SInce I won't be available when the market closes, I'll use that figure to compute Mr Moran's investment

20,000 shares at $77.77 = $1,554,000

$1.7 MILLION DOLLARS - $1,554,000 = $146,000 Loss on paper.

Has anyone heard anything about the possibility of Wynn dot being offered for sale?

Interesting but basic observaton. With every one-cent change in the stock price of Wynn Resorts, Mr Moran gains or loses $200.00

Oppps! There foes another $200!!! Just dropped to $77.76

Wynn closed at $77.29 (4:00 PM, Monday, July 14)

20,000 shares at $77.29 = $1,545,800
$1.7 million - $1,545,800 = $ 154,200 Loss on paper.

Watched the ticker tape slide down the last few minutes before closing and got a stomach ache. I could never do this if I actually bought a lot of stock.

BYD- Boyd (ESCHALON developer) was $9.28 when I checked it out on July 12, '08. Today it closed at $8.91 and some after hours trading drove it up to $9.14.

I already mentioned the "Macau twist" to Wynn & MGM, so I guess it's time to discuss some reasons why Boyd isn't really too much better as the Las Vegas gambling standard. LOL, I can't come up with a stock that would reflect ONLY on Las Vegas, or I would already have suggested it!

Back to Boyd - they do own a bunch of local casinos in Las Vegas, but you have to consider their 50% ownership of Borgota in AC, their stake in the Water Club about to open in AC, three casinos in Louisiana, Sam's Town in Tunica, MS, a couple of boats in Indiana & Illinois and even a jai alai facility in Florida. 9 of Boyd's 15 casinos are in Nevada, and the Las Vegas properties in general are larger than the others, but there's too much outside influence to measure the Las Vegas recovery by Boyd stock performance.

Boyd brings visions of the Las Vegas "locals market" to most people, but Echelon Place will be a tourist whopper on the strip *IF* Boyd is able to bring it to completion. Altogether, it's about a $10 billion project slated to open in 2010, but I saw one article that said less than $1 billion of the financing was in place right now. Boyd has some partners in this project - for example, Morgan Group will be partners in 2 of the hotels in the complex, and I don't know how much of the financing Boyd has to come up with, but this is definitely a lot for Boyd to chew, and there have definitely been merger/buyout rumors floating around the past year.

Now that I've thrown another twist at you, I hope you'll keep tracking Wynn and Boyd for us - IMO neither tracks Las Vegas only, but they are two good choices for both whale and guppy gaming, and I think it will be interesting to see what economic predictions we draw from them. Maybe we should set up our own stock-picking contest among the gaming stocks - no big prizes, just bragging rights for the month or year!

Thanks for that solid info, Daisy. And yes, I will do my best to keep some kind of track on both Wynn and BYD with what you had to say in mind.

It will be interesting to see if BYD is able to complete the ECHALON project in total under today's present economic situation. I suspect that he will do his best by completing one project within the Echalon project at a time instead of going whole hog-wild as MGM is doing in conjunction with the Dubai investors on City Center.

I am definitely not an expert on this subject but I honestly believe that we have seen the end of the gigantic growth of Las Vegas and can expect a slowdown (or at least a lull) or even a possible set-back during the next five to six years with minor and periodic exceptions.

This in turn could amount to be a blessing in disguise for many of us who love Las Vegas but "love it on a limited budget". Table minimums, room rates, and dining expenses will more than likely come down and we could be returning to what was the old Las Vegas style.

I only wish that these relatively new casinos would accept an historical lesson and nominate a well known and well recognized figure-head to represent their establishment and make him mingle with his hotel/casino guests on a frequent basis.

Any hotel is better appreciated and more respected when it has a reputable figurehead shaking hands with all his guests at various times throughout the day and evening.

Look back to the days and evenings of Doc and his wife when they greeted their guests on the Hacienda casino floor and offered one and all complimentary Champaigne from a silver fountain, and when Mr Binion walked the aisles handing out rolls of nickles and a genuine, "Good luck, folks!" to his smiling guests. And even when Bob Stupak stood by his five foot hot dog cart in an off colored apron offering foot long Polish hot dogs to his six foot guests who often appeared down on their luck but lucky enough to be greeted by the boss of this establishment. And even Rio Rita who simply offered an appealing smile and a genuine welcome while standing by your side waiting for your wife to figure out how to work the camera and snap the picture.

Those are the joints that I remember best. Those are the joints that I respected and apprecaited the most down through my history with Las Vegas.

We all learn lessons on how to improve during difficult times and I do hope that someone of importance to each of us learns that the old ways of Las Vegas did work best and takes it upon himself to lead the way and return to that simple style of casino hospitality most of us have never seen or might have simply forgotten.

Vegas need that once again....... A smile, a kind word, a roll of nickels, a photgraph! ..

That could be the simple trick that turns the economic tide in a town that is too difficult to dislike under any circumstance for most of us.

A return to the way it used to be.

A very simple solution.

And while you're at it, Will, how about bringing back those Sneaky Queens video poker machines to the Rio?!?!?!? They didn't have the greatest pay tables, but they were fun to play!:)

OK, Tater, I'll see what I can do, but to be honerst with ya, I got no idea what the Sneaky Queens were. I'll Google it this evening though.

LOL, those machines were fun - and I don't think I ever even saw a Sneaky Queen. It was the anticipation!

will. I hope that you are wrong about the 5-6 year lull. I miss the old days too and like some of your ideas though.

I don't see a lot of problems with the economy other than an almost a dollar a gallon for gas and an overdue adjustment to the boom wave we've been riding. People made rapid adjustments when gas jumpped so fast. We're back down to close to $4 and I heard of $3.99 last night.

FWIW, the Eastside Cannery is about to open, which created many jobs, Alliente Station is hiring about a 1000 now and many more to come, and Steve is taking apps for about 5000 jobs for the Encore No Dot resort.

There are many projects that will be ready before the new wears off of those 3 properties. The Arab City Center and Fountainbleu are not vertically challenged anymore. The first of two Planet Hollywood towers topped off a couple of weeks ago. And there's other really big buildings that I just haven't kept up with that well. That's jobs, residences, and a demmand for infrastructure to support it.

I hope that rather than a lull, this is just a correction to the boom, and Las Vegas will once again reinvent itself and come out strong.

JMT, thanks, and I certainly do hope that you are right. I tend to be a pessimist during troubled economic times, but I rather call myself an 'Honest pessimist" in an attempt to make it/ME sound a wee bit better.

And in order to remain as such I do have to agree with what you stated above and add the following to remain an "honest" pessimist.

I find it sort of funny that since we got a bit used to the very high price of gas (over $4.69 in my area) all it's gonna take for us to be happy once again - is auto fuel at $3.99. Even at that price I will tend to be pessimistic when I can recall just a few years back the figure $1.39.

A common sales strategy - Triple the price and then reduce it a third, and they will come, and they will be happy. Then wait a while and do it again! We fall for that "malarky" all the time.

I am glad to see that all those projects that you have mention will soon be off the ground! (I may be a pessimist but I am never happy for someone's failures.)

But what is a project if there is no one to go inside? MGM was most fortunate that the Dubai Partners entered the picture and saved the day, but we may still live to see the straw that breaks the camel's back in the form of a lack of buyer's, visitors, or gamblers at the tables.

And those wonderful new Planet Hollywood Towers! Will they sell as condos? And if so, who is going to offer the mortgages? Probably no one in today's market!

So will they go "Time Share"? That may work if it's done right and could be the only real solution with the unsold weeks and units placed within the hotel pool.

But why pay for a time share on the Strip if you can do without the worries of such a luxury and merely rent one for almost the same amount of cash each year? Buy one and you're obligated to kick in your share of the common area maintenance each year plus the price you paid to be a Time Share Owner.

And I do understand that there is a secondary market for Time Share units where you can step right in and get that Time Share unit for about half the price that the initial buyer paid.

Take a walk down the Strip and look up into those new condos at night and all you'll see is blackness - the sure sign of a vacant unit. Even when you look on weekends.

The last time I spoke to someone who owned and resided in an apartment in the "Sky", she bragged that it was nice and peaceful because there were only another ten units occupied. (I wonder if the others were all sold?)

SO just because the town is full of buildings, it doesn't mean that those projects are successful.

I'd prefer to be wrong about these next few years, but if I told you differently, I'd be a lieing pessimist. And I ain't that at all even though I honestly hope I'm wrong.

Thanks, JMT... Always interesting discussing things with you.

Friday, 18 July '08

Wynn closes at $88.03

20,000 shares X $88.03 = $1,760,600

$60,600 Gain

Friday, 18 July, BYD (Boyd) closed at closed at $9.15

And then went up to $10 a share after hours. Anyone know why?

Will be interesting to see what it opens at on Monday morning.

Byd opened at $9.20 this morning Monday, July 21

Wynn opened at $91.02 this morning and is presently at $95.33 (11:24 AM)

That would have been a profit of $206,600 if the investment was sold. Minus commissions of course.