As I sit here, I can't help but wonder "How is Vegas really doing"?
I've seen the increase of offers come my way, from places I barely played at if at all over the last year or so. Now some of those offers are lame, very restrictive dates or asking for a rated play over what I normally play to qualify. But I have been receiving quite a few good offers, both through the snail mail and some e-mailed. All of which make me wonder how Vegas is really doing in these tough times.
I can see people droping Vegas off of thier vacation map for awhile. Disposable cash is after all at a premium after what has happened to my 401k, I will assume there are a lot of people in my shoes here, and some a lot worse.
Now I'm not crying the sky is falling here, but those bean counters probably have a lot less beans to count these days, would be my guess.
I see things like those expencive name resturants maybe having a bit of a struggle, as splurge money becomes tighter, for us working people. They will always have thier high end customers, but us interlopers, might be inclined to go visit the coffee shop for the meal deal here.
Then maybe I should look on the bright side, tickets for those high end shows, might be easier to get my hands on too? Or maybe they too will be forced to offer discounts, like the less then premium shows do already through some ticket outlets.
How about those Californians? I know they have closer options to gamble, then the long drive to Vegas. Even with gas prices slowly creeping down, $3+ a gallon is still a lot.

I know I have my November trip planned! I'm already looking at a Febuary trip too. I just might enjoy these next trips a little more, a stop and smell the flowers sort of thing. I always seem to rush through everything in Vegas to get to the next point on my list. I also haven't done a cheap Las vegas trip for a long time, where we use coupons for most everything. I think right now would be an excellent time for one of those as well.

Comments welcome, your own thoughts on any or all of this subject, please....

From my standpoint, I haven't noticed a single change. I was expecting cheaper shows, more food deals, a cutback in service, fewer weekend warriors from California, and maybe some 24/7 places closing down in the wee hours. And most of all, I was expecting free room offers from the high end joints.

I know people are cutting back. I just haven't seen it. Margaritaville was packed on Sunday morning. The little showroom where they have football parties was packed. The strip seems as full as ever on weekends. The Miracle Mile shopping mall is as busy as ever. Parking around town hasn't seem to have changed. The mailers I get are not more enticing. The roads don't seem less crowded.

Contrary to high profile media coverage, there are still high rise structures going up with 35+ floors of multi million dollar condos.

Personally, I think this economy stuff was a long needed correction. That and gas prices were sparked by election year publicity. My 401k took a hit too. I feel confident it will bounce back.

So I am curious too. Fewer trips, less gaming, less dining, less entertainment, shorter stays, or what?

JMT,
I know I plan vacations a few months ahead. Sometimes as much as a year in advance. The slowdown could take awhile to really set in, as people lick thier wounds from the recent drop in the market.
I know I've been getting offers from places I never got offers from before. I do and I'm not even saying any of that is from this most recent drop in the market. Everyday, I seem to get something new in the mail. It will be interesting as the cooler months come, and the slower season comes.

Regarding my Nov 22 trip to take my son to see Seinfeld, you may have seen that I had made a reservation at Mandalay Bay. On Friday, I received an offer from Paris for $50 less so I'm going with that one. Previously, Paris had claimed to be all sold out. I haven't made my airlines reservations yet but for the past several weeks, the tix were $200 a person. I went online yesterday to Southwest and they are now $80 one way and $69 the other. I don't know if this has anything to do with the economy, but I'm glad I waited.

What you all said about Vegas not seeming so different makes sence. And Lee and JMT if anyone would notice it would be you two. I think Vegas is still a draw for the young crowd. Perhaps what isn't noticable is how much play is going on?
People are still there but they may be spending differently.
Vegas is still a cheap date travel and hotel wise. The shows and food is expensive but people can pass on that if they have to to make there money go farther.

I tend to respectfully disagree with you, JMT.

I think LV is hurting much more than is evident to the naked eye.

I have friends up and down the Strip who depend on the Strip for their livelihood.

One of the valet guys claims that hotel business is down somewhere near 35% these past few months and many claim is will be getting worse.

One of my old time Pit Boss friends says that all the hotel/casinos are hurting (relatively speaking) and they don't see any immediate improvements in sight.

There is a company in LV that keeps stats on every conceivable economic variable in town and their monthly reports have not been encouraging. Give me some time to look it up and refer you to it.

Wynn stock is down to $52 and Boyd is at $5. ( I suggest a BUY when Boyd hits 4. It'll make you rich when Echelon goes up! )

Hotel rates are down all over town. Latest is $25 a night at the Orleans. (Specific nights only of course.)

But it is interesting to note that every major California casino I've visited these past few months has been exceptionally busy to the point where a vacant slot machine can seldom be found. And that is during the mid week when tour buses arrive by the dozens.

But in LV the casinos on and off the Strip are relatively empty during the midweek periods.

LV will get back on its feet once again but I think it's gonna be later than sooner and most of us will never see it reach the heights it hit these past few years since the Mirage was opened by Mr Wynn.

Like some joints downtown and off the Strip, we'll be seeing some bumps and grinds, but the main act will never be as popular as it once was.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think I'm right in my assumptions.

I agree will. What I see through my eyes are only as accurate as where i go and what I do. Your relayed comments are probably more accurate than the daily news, plus there is more, such as the Harrahs layoffs. I'm sure there are many more stories of doom also. There is no denying that the stats are down.

OTOH, Alliente Station is hiring about 1000. Encore is hiring 5000. M resort is so desperate to hire people that they contracted a big blimp to tell people they are hiring.

Maybe I'm part of the problem since I don't valet that much and I don't gamble much and I don't drink that much and I don't pay full price for shows that much. Most of my free time is weekends. I drive a lot. I see a lot of shows. I eat tourist food about twice per week. I park in parking garages alot. I walk the strip and downtown alot. The volume of people appear the same.

I've been getting more emails and junk mail from the casinos but they have been so lame that they mostly hit the trash before they get a serious read. For instance Harrah's is offering 2 cent rooms on Tuesday. That gimmick is not worth reading. 6x points on Tuesdays don't grab my attention. A free jacket for earning 500 points doesn't draw me in either. What I haven't decided is if the offers are tighter because they are trying to save money or if more crappy offers are expected to draw in the curious.

JMT, we seem to do the same things on Las Vegas weekends. I wouldn't doubt it if I followed in your footsteps one Satuday afternoon.

But most of my time on the Strip is mid-week, so we may be seeing the same places under different environments. I see it when it's a stagnant midweek and you see it when it's a jumping weekend.

I think it's the weekends that are keeping Las Vegas on its feet.

I drove out to Aliente Station last week and was impressed by what has happened out on that edge of the desert. And I did notice that they were in the process of hiring good Las Vegas people.

But I'll bet ya this .... they'll only be hiring a limited number of new employees to meet their needs within this depressed economy.

Or .... they may hire more than they need to accomodate the first opening couple of weeks when everyone in town wants to see how the new place looks.

And then when everyone has seen the place, they'll be laying them off in droves.

Negative attitude!!?? Sure! But we are living in negative economic times.

I also visited "W" out on the south end of the Strip. I was impressed! It appears that they will be open in April 2009 and I have a strong suspicion that it will be a very popular hotel/casino ... much more popular that South Coast because of its southern location.

BTW .... I haven't had time to read all the postings lately to see if you got my earlier message but I did see the magic show at the Palace Station (compt) and enjoyed it IMMENSELY. Also had dinner and a couple of Martinis at Coachman's Inn and will be going back every time I visit LV from now on out. Chicken Piccata was excellent.

I was somewhat taken back by the outside and kind of hesitant when I saw you had to ring the buzzer to enter (during late evening hours) but once inside I found it very appealing, relaxing and all those other good dining attributes.

BTW.... that interior side room sits 20 comfortably

Met and talked briefly to the owner too. Thanks for the good heads-up, JMT!

Up to date on LV stocks ....

Wynn was down to $45.70 on Thursday, 16 October '08 and hit $57.52 on Friday the 17th.

I failed to mention this earlier but Mr Moran (Wynn Board member previously mentioned much earlier) purchased 10,000 more Wynn shares at an average price of $72.47 each bringing his total share ownership to just about 180,000 shares.

That's just about a $15 per share loss since his most recent "investment".

I'm no long range stock expert here so I have to assume that he knows what he is doing.

Can anyone guess what?

Boyd stock hit $5.36 after hours on Friday.

Anyone thinking about investing in one of these casino stocks?

Here's some info on casino income since the rise of the California Indian casinos 20 years ago:

Last year's Indian gaming revenue - $26 billion!!!!!!!!.
Nevada casinos collected $12.8 billion.
New Jersey casinos collected $4.9 billion.

Wednesday, 22 October, 2008

Wynn Stock - $46.35 (after hours)
Byd Stock - $ 4.85 (after hours)

At what price will the professional stock analyists suggest a BUY?

Oct 24, 2008 / Mid-day

Wynn - $39.18 - I think that the original IPO was $13 per share. WIll it go that low again?

Byd - $ 4 .05 - In 1998 Byd stock hit of low of $2.81 per share. I'd be amazed if it hits that low again.

What affect will these low stock prices have on the future of Echelon if they continue?

Any stock experts out there?

I think the stock experts are hiding under their desks behind locked doors right now<g>.

My non-expert view is the low stock prices aren't the problem; they are a reflection of high anxiety, low earnings and the tightness of the credit market - and that Echelon won't resume building until those last two look better.

Hmmmm, that's about where I bought BYD the last time, and that purchase worked out ok.

the "experts" say don't buy anything now until the "bottom" hits."they" also say don't buy anything unless you have to.i don't know what that means. i do believe we have not seen the bottom in vegas,which is a luxury item.buy walmart-procter and gamble-costco with walmart the best bet.m2c

DAG, I think your right about Walmart.
I've never seen the parking lots fuller!

Thanks for that info, Dag and Daisy.

Wynn closed down at $36.59 today. That's about a $2.40 loss per share if you bought earlier this afternoon.

Boyd simple dropped four-cents to $4.01

WILD GUESS here but I think that Wynn will eventually bottom out at $27.00 to $30.00 a share and Boyd should go as low as $3.00.

Is it possible for shares of stock to have no value what-so-ever while a business is still in business?

One stock manipulator friend of mine says that my "analysis" is just about as good as any professional's, but he also says that sometimes it is best to let a chimpanzee pick the stocks on your behalf.

I think these big name casino stocks could not drop down to worthless because the companies have cash, property, and other assets. You see, the stock value can never drop below the cash liquidation value. For instance, if a company had a value of a million dollars and there were a million shares, the stock would never drop below one dollar. Otherwise someone would come in and buy it all up, because it would be like buying free money. You would have to do some research and find out how much their value really is and how many shares they have to find out how far they are from rock bottom.

the problem with that is the million dollar company has two million in debt.remember i owned washington mutual,plenty of assets( most worthless) no cash,sold for pennies on the dollar,stock worthless.most casino companys have huge debt and i predict that dubai will own a huge chunck of las vegas.in fact didn't prince somebody just pump millions into some project to keep it afloat?

is echelon the mgm-mirage project (billions) with kirk kirkorian as major stock holder? if so he just bailed out of ford,losing millions or billions.so you gotta wonder if mgm-mirage may be next on his bail out of list.now that i think about,i believe echelon was the project that prince so n so pumped money into or i've got the whole scenerio screwed up here.

Echelon is a Boyd project. I'm not aware of the MGM connection.

MGM Mirage is working on City Center, and that is financed by arabian connections with questionable money. I don't see their pockets getting shallow any time soon. Every time MGM gets in trouble, they come in and throw money at it. They did it for City Center on more than one occasion, they did it for MGM when Echelon first shut down, and they did it for Chris Angel and bought up a percentage of Cirque. My guess is that they have too much invested to let MGM go down, unless they want to buy full control really cheap.

My theory is soon to be tested as MGM is hurting and rumors say the Bellagio is for sale with Steve Wynn looking to buy. The Bellagio is a major property for MGM. If MGM lets it go, especially to Wynn, it will speak volumes. If they hang on to it, it's because of another money injection and you can bet that there will be personal 747s with markings in a language that we can't read parked on the bizjet ramp at LAS. I've seen it happen more than just a few times.

i wonder if tim is trained in arabic?