As I sit here, I can't help but wonder "How is Vegas really doing"?
I've seen the increase of offers come my way, from places I barely played at if at all over the last year or so. Now some of those offers are lame, very restrictive dates or asking for a rated play over what I normally play to qualify. But I have been receiving quite a few good offers, both through the snail mail and some e-mailed. All of which make me wonder how Vegas is really doing in these tough times.
I can see people droping Vegas off of thier vacation map for awhile. Disposable cash is after all at a premium after what has happened to my 401k, I will assume there are a lot of people in my shoes here, and some a lot worse.
Now I'm not crying the sky is falling here, but those bean counters probably have a lot less beans to count these days, would be my guess.
I see things like those expencive name resturants maybe having a bit of a struggle, as splurge money becomes tighter, for us working people. They will always have thier high end customers, but us interlopers, might be inclined to go visit the coffee shop for the meal deal here.
Then maybe I should look on the bright side, tickets for those high end shows, might be easier to get my hands on too? Or maybe they too will be forced to offer discounts, like the less then premium shows do already through some ticket outlets.
How about those Californians? I know they have closer options to gamble, then the long drive to Vegas. Even with gas prices slowly creeping down, $3+ a gallon is still a lot.

I know I have my November trip planned! I'm already looking at a Febuary trip too. I just might enjoy these next trips a little more, a stop and smell the flowers sort of thing. I always seem to rush through everything in Vegas to get to the next point on my list. I also haven't done a cheap Las vegas trip for a long time, where we use coupons for most everything. I think right now would be an excellent time for one of those as well.

Comments welcome, your own thoughts on any or all of this subject, please....

From my standpoint, I haven't noticed a single change. I was expecting cheaper shows, more food deals, a cutback in service, fewer weekend warriors from California, and maybe some 24/7 places closing down in the wee hours. And most of all, I was expecting free room offers from the high end joints.

I know people are cutting back. I just haven't seen it. Margaritaville was packed on Sunday morning. The little showroom where they have football parties was packed. The strip seems as full as ever on weekends. The Miracle Mile shopping mall is as busy as ever. Parking around town hasn't seem to have changed. The mailers I get are not more enticing. The roads don't seem less crowded.

Contrary to high profile media coverage, there are still high rise structures going up with 35+ floors of multi million dollar condos.

Personally, I think this economy stuff was a long needed correction. That and gas prices were sparked by election year publicity. My 401k took a hit too. I feel confident it will bounce back.

So I am curious too. Fewer trips, less gaming, less dining, less entertainment, shorter stays, or what?

JMT,
I know I plan vacations a few months ahead. Sometimes as much as a year in advance. The slowdown could take awhile to really set in, as people lick thier wounds from the recent drop in the market.
I know I've been getting offers from places I never got offers from before. I do and I'm not even saying any of that is from this most recent drop in the market. Everyday, I seem to get something new in the mail. It will be interesting as the cooler months come, and the slower season comes.

Regarding my Nov 22 trip to take my son to see Seinfeld, you may have seen that I had made a reservation at Mandalay Bay. On Friday, I received an offer from Paris for $50 less so I'm going with that one. Previously, Paris had claimed to be all sold out. I haven't made my airlines reservations yet but for the past several weeks, the tix were $200 a person. I went online yesterday to Southwest and they are now $80 one way and $69 the other. I don't know if this has anything to do with the economy, but I'm glad I waited.

What you all said about Vegas not seeming so different makes sence. And Lee and JMT if anyone would notice it would be you two. I think Vegas is still a draw for the young crowd. Perhaps what isn't noticable is how much play is going on?
People are still there but they may be spending differently.
Vegas is still a cheap date travel and hotel wise. The shows and food is expensive but people can pass on that if they have to to make there money go farther.

I tend to respectfully disagree with you, JMT.

I think LV is hurting much more than is evident to the naked eye.

I have friends up and down the Strip who depend on the Strip for their livelihood.

One of the valet guys claims that hotel business is down somewhere near 35% these past few months and many claim is will be getting worse.

One of my old time Pit Boss friends says that all the hotel/casinos are hurting (relatively speaking) and they don't see any immediate improvements in sight.

There is a company in LV that keeps stats on every conceivable economic variable in town and their monthly reports have not been encouraging. Give me some time to look it up and refer you to it.

Wynn stock is down to $52 and Boyd is at $5. ( I suggest a BUY when Boyd hits 4. It'll make you rich when Echelon goes up! )

Hotel rates are down all over town. Latest is $25 a night at the Orleans. (Specific nights only of course.)

But it is interesting to note that every major California casino I've visited these past few months has been exceptionally busy to the point where a vacant slot machine can seldom be found. And that is during the mid week when tour buses arrive by the dozens.

But in LV the casinos on and off the Strip are relatively empty during the midweek periods.

LV will get back on its feet once again but I think it's gonna be later than sooner and most of us will never see it reach the heights it hit these past few years since the Mirage was opened by Mr Wynn.

Like some joints downtown and off the Strip, we'll be seeing some bumps and grinds, but the main act will never be as popular as it once was.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think I'm right in my assumptions.

I agree will. What I see through my eyes are only as accurate as where i go and what I do. Your relayed comments are probably more accurate than the daily news, plus there is more, such as the Harrahs layoffs. I'm sure there are many more stories of doom also. There is no denying that the stats are down.

OTOH, Alliente Station is hiring about 1000. Encore is hiring 5000. M resort is so desperate to hire people that they contracted a big blimp to tell people they are hiring.

Maybe I'm part of the problem since I don't valet that much and I don't gamble much and I don't drink that much and I don't pay full price for shows that much. Most of my free time is weekends. I drive a lot. I see a lot of shows. I eat tourist food about twice per week. I park in parking garages alot. I walk the strip and downtown alot. The volume of people appear the same.

I've been getting more emails and junk mail from the casinos but they have been so lame that they mostly hit the trash before they get a serious read. For instance Harrah's is offering 2 cent rooms on Tuesday. That gimmick is not worth reading. 6x points on Tuesdays don't grab my attention. A free jacket for earning 500 points doesn't draw me in either. What I haven't decided is if the offers are tighter because they are trying to save money or if more crappy offers are expected to draw in the curious.

JMT, we seem to do the same things on Las Vegas weekends. I wouldn't doubt it if I followed in your footsteps one Satuday afternoon.

But most of my time on the Strip is mid-week, so we may be seeing the same places under different environments. I see it when it's a stagnant midweek and you see it when it's a jumping weekend.

I think it's the weekends that are keeping Las Vegas on its feet.

I drove out to Aliente Station last week and was impressed by what has happened out on that edge of the desert. And I did notice that they were in the process of hiring good Las Vegas people.

But I'll bet ya this .... they'll only be hiring a limited number of new employees to meet their needs within this depressed economy.

Or .... they may hire more than they need to accomodate the first opening couple of weeks when everyone in town wants to see how the new place looks.

And then when everyone has seen the place, they'll be laying them off in droves.

Negative attitude!!?? Sure! But we are living in negative economic times.

I also visited "W" out on the south end of the Strip. I was impressed! It appears that they will be open in April 2009 and I have a strong suspicion that it will be a very popular hotel/casino ... much more popular that South Coast because of its southern location.

BTW .... I haven't had time to read all the postings lately to see if you got my earlier message but I did see the magic show at the Palace Station (compt) and enjoyed it IMMENSELY. Also had dinner and a couple of Martinis at Coachman's Inn and will be going back every time I visit LV from now on out. Chicken Piccata was excellent.

I was somewhat taken back by the outside and kind of hesitant when I saw you had to ring the buzzer to enter (during late evening hours) but once inside I found it very appealing, relaxing and all those other good dining attributes.

BTW.... that interior side room sits 20 comfortably

Met and talked briefly to the owner too. Thanks for the good heads-up, JMT!

Up to date on LV stocks ....

Wynn was down to $45.70 on Thursday, 16 October '08 and hit $57.52 on Friday the 17th.

I failed to mention this earlier but Mr Moran (Wynn Board member previously mentioned much earlier) purchased 10,000 more Wynn shares at an average price of $72.47 each bringing his total share ownership to just about 180,000 shares.

That's just about a $15 per share loss since his most recent "investment".

I'm no long range stock expert here so I have to assume that he knows what he is doing.

Can anyone guess what?

Boyd stock hit $5.36 after hours on Friday.

Anyone thinking about investing in one of these casino stocks?

Here's some info on casino income since the rise of the California Indian casinos 20 years ago:

Last year's Indian gaming revenue - $26 billion!!!!!!!!.
Nevada casinos collected $12.8 billion.
New Jersey casinos collected $4.9 billion.

Wednesday, 22 October, 2008

Wynn Stock - $46.35 (after hours)
Byd Stock - $ 4.85 (after hours)

At what price will the professional stock analyists suggest a BUY?

Oct 24, 2008 / Mid-day

Wynn - $39.18 - I think that the original IPO was $13 per share. WIll it go that low again?

Byd - $ 4 .05 - In 1998 Byd stock hit of low of $2.81 per share. I'd be amazed if it hits that low again.

What affect will these low stock prices have on the future of Echelon if they continue?

Any stock experts out there?

I think the stock experts are hiding under their desks behind locked doors right now<g>.

My non-expert view is the low stock prices aren't the problem; they are a reflection of high anxiety, low earnings and the tightness of the credit market - and that Echelon won't resume building until those last two look better.

Hmmmm, that's about where I bought BYD the last time, and that purchase worked out ok.

the "experts" say don't buy anything now until the "bottom" hits."they" also say don't buy anything unless you have to.i don't know what that means. i do believe we have not seen the bottom in vegas,which is a luxury item.buy walmart-procter and gamble-costco with walmart the best bet.m2c

DAG, I think your right about Walmart.
I've never seen the parking lots fuller!

Thanks for that info, Dag and Daisy.

Wynn closed down at $36.59 today. That's about a $2.40 loss per share if you bought earlier this afternoon.

Boyd simple dropped four-cents to $4.01

WILD GUESS here but I think that Wynn will eventually bottom out at $27.00 to $30.00 a share and Boyd should go as low as $3.00.

Is it possible for shares of stock to have no value what-so-ever while a business is still in business?

One stock manipulator friend of mine says that my "analysis" is just about as good as any professional's, but he also says that sometimes it is best to let a chimpanzee pick the stocks on your behalf.

I think these big name casino stocks could not drop down to worthless because the companies have cash, property, and other assets. You see, the stock value can never drop below the cash liquidation value. For instance, if a company had a value of a million dollars and there were a million shares, the stock would never drop below one dollar. Otherwise someone would come in and buy it all up, because it would be like buying free money. You would have to do some research and find out how much their value really is and how many shares they have to find out how far they are from rock bottom.

the problem with that is the million dollar company has two million in debt.remember i owned washington mutual,plenty of assets( most worthless) no cash,sold for pennies on the dollar,stock worthless.most casino companys have huge debt and i predict that dubai will own a huge chunck of las vegas.in fact didn't prince somebody just pump millions into some project to keep it afloat?

is echelon the mgm-mirage project (billions) with kirk kirkorian as major stock holder? if so he just bailed out of ford,losing millions or billions.so you gotta wonder if mgm-mirage may be next on his bail out of list.now that i think about,i believe echelon was the project that prince so n so pumped money into or i've got the whole scenerio screwed up here.

Echelon is a Boyd project. I'm not aware of the MGM connection.

MGM Mirage is working on City Center, and that is financed by arabian connections with questionable money. I don't see their pockets getting shallow any time soon. Every time MGM gets in trouble, they come in and throw money at it. They did it for City Center on more than one occasion, they did it for MGM when Echelon first shut down, and they did it for Chris Angel and bought up a percentage of Cirque. My guess is that they have too much invested to let MGM go down, unless they want to buy full control really cheap.

My theory is soon to be tested as MGM is hurting and rumors say the Bellagio is for sale with Steve Wynn looking to buy. The Bellagio is a major property for MGM. If MGM lets it go, especially to Wynn, it will speak volumes. If they hang on to it, it's because of another money injection and you can bet that there will be personal 747s with markings in a language that we can't read parked on the bizjet ramp at LAS. I've seen it happen more than just a few times.

i wonder if tim is trained in arabic?

The Dubai money bought a large portion of City Center in partnership with MGM Grand, I believe. I think that the Echelon money is coming from US sources; but I tend to agree that some of the Strip Hotel/Casinos will be changing ownership sooner than expected.

These valet guys seem to know more than the stock market pros regarding what is really happening (the pros and cons) to the larger properties on the Strip.

I honestly think that we've seen the end of Las Vegas as we used to know it.

It changed immensely when Howard Hughes came into the picture, and once again when Steve Wynn got on the Strip, and our present economy will change it even more noticeably.

For better of for worse? You tell me!

I personally think it hit its peak as a free spirited service town just prior to Mr Hughes entering the picture. In my personal opinion, those were the "Glory Days".

I think a desert tortoise under a rock in the desert knows more than the stock market pros.

Las Vegas constantly reinvents itself. Some people see several phases inbetween the mob, Howard Hughes, Steve Wynn, and current era. For instance, the town changed when they went after the childrens themes and that didn't last long. Steve Wynn started the mega resort era, but the competition took off ran far ahead of him. I don't know how long the celebrity chef era will last.

Every era has it's advantages and disadvantages. I think you are correct that the days of free spirited service are gone. When Las Vegas recovers, it will have advantages that we have never seen before and we will surely miss something about what we have now.

Another oddity about MGM Mirage. In 2003, they started dropping themselves from local community and business organizations including the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce. Last Tuesday, they resigned from the NRA. No, not that one. It was the Nevada Resort Association, a powerful lobby group that makes hotel decisions as a group, such as a pending hotel tax on tourist. Harrah's, Wynn, and Stations support the tax.

There are probably two things that are going to help Las Vegas in the relatively short term:

One is the fall in gasoline prices. They are down at least 1/3rd from the peak around here. Its like having an extra $20-30 a week. Its got to help the weekend traffic.

The other is the economy makes gambling look like a good idea. Savings is pointless, the new regime will just take it away. Further safe investments are paying negative returns. They are now discussing abolishing 401-K's because they don't want the retired to have an income that is not under government control.

Might as well cash out and go to Vegas, at least it will be fun while it lasts.

I think that the offers in the past month have been getting better. Previously Bellagio was offering between a $99 and $169 per night rate. They now have gone to 3 nights free.
The offers from the Station casinos have also improved.

Gold Coast just sent me a colorful e-mail offering $25 mid-week room rates. Have not seen any decent room that low in a long time.

Checked into The Palms a month or so ago for $90 per night and was upgraded to one of their new and better rooms which was almost as nice as a Bellagio room.

Where can we find that Bellagio "3 nights free" deal, Eric?

Tuesday, October 28, 3008 Wynn stock hit $31.27 at 10:40 AM today!

This marks eight (8) straight months of declining gambling revenue on the Las Vegas Strip.

Wynn stock shares have dropped 67 percent this year.

Sands shares decline 94 percent
.
MGM Mirage has fallen 87 percent.

At what price will these shares become an EXCELLENT BUY?

Whenever it happens, it will happen and we won't know. We will look at the numbers and say, "Yep, last week was the best time to get in". Who foresaw Wall St jumping up 1000 today?

Today Wynn is at $46.58.

Did we miss the boat.

I bet not!

I spoke earlier of how the Arab connection to Las Vegas via MGM is big and hinted it might be bigger than most realize. Today brought the point home even clearer. Dubai already owns about 10% of MGM and Cirque and 50% of City Center.

Dubai World has already pumped billions and billions into MGM, Cirque, City Center, and no telling what else and whose pockets. They own at least 50% of the $9 billion City Center.

Now the Gaming Board has allowed several subsidiaries of Dubai Worlds "investment arm" to pump another $6 billion into MGM Mirage.

Sorta stinks of dirty money to me and might just be the tip of that ice berg.

Wynn was as high as $60 on November 3 but it's back down to about $44 at present. So we didn'nt miss the boat - just Yet! GOna be interesting to see what it hits just prior to and after the grand opening of Encore.

JMT can you elaborate a bit on the Dubai World's "investment arm"? I know nothing about that part of the world except that they have loads of money.

No I can't. I do find the wording suspicious at best. It's not Dubai World that people are only somewhat familiar with and is probably a legit company. And it's not really their investment arm which is a very vague way of saying a friend of a friend of a friend. It is subsidiaries of that FOAFOAF.

Dubai is a very open country. Everyone knows the leader and his family. There aren't any big secrets. How can you go down that many secret steps and not be in dirty money? It might not be a direct link to terrorism. It might not be associated with illegal arms sales. It might not be money stolen from other governments. It might not be from an unfriendly country like Syria. It might not be a big secret US spy ring. When you use company names, it's easy to track. When you go down a secret staircase, each step has it's own secrets. And my suspicion puts it deeper into the dark side with each step. I think that if it was Kuwaiti prince, he would have the pride to put his name on it. I don't know of a more politically correct term than dirty money. $6 billion is not pocket change for anyone, especially legit sources.

I read his week that the Sands is having a major problem with its bond covenants.

A number of nations have sovereign wealth funds. Kuwait started the idea though the biggest is now China. Up to recently, the middle east countries have concentrated in investing in financial services while China has gone into natural resources.

Given the poor outcomes of investing in financial services, I would not be surprised to see the Emirate funds diversifying and real estate is a traditional investment for uncertain times.

let me see if i kinda have this sorted out-it will soon be dubai-mirage,hong kong sands corp(venitian)wynn ain't talking but you know he is hurting, (sands laying off 11000 in macau,project on hold,terrible herbst corp soon to file,1/2 billion in debt that he can,t cover.i may be spinning the news but i thought boyd was in trouble and will you are worried that we missed the boat on wynn. stock? put your money back in your pocket and just wait,and the real problem is 25.00 rooms ain't gonna fix the problem!now i don't want to be mister gloom and doom but we just might be there and for me it might be a good time to pull back a bit. a buffet dinner and twenty bucks through the slots at my local tribal will have to do for awhile

I guess I see it different than CNN. Sheldon's problems and SteveDots problems are my opportunities.

What's wrong with a $25 room that used to go for $125? What's wrong with a $100k home that used to go for $350k? What's wrong with $2 gas that was $5 this summer?

Agreed that a $25 room wont solve the economy mess. Staying home and buying Indian buffets and pumping $20 into a tax exempt slot wont solve it either. It could be argued to be worse for the economy. Individually, none of us are going to solve this mess. A Chicken Little attitude wont solve it. Spending your retirement now wont solve it.

Almost everyone has less spending power than before and I wont tell anyone how to spend whatever they have remaining. I think the answer is how much we have left in our pockets, and not the status of MGM or Sands or Boyd.

Take a shovel and bury your money or take a checkbook and find the bargains???

the point is that you haven't seen the bottom yet!

Where some see garbage, others see gold!

I have a friend who has been buying Wynn and Boyd in big batches even though I advise him otherwise. Actually he is following the advise of his Stock expert and ignoring what I have been telling him.

And I do agree with Dagwash .... we ain't seen the bottom just yet.

BTW, I did go to another Indian casino in Northern California this past weekend and the place was packed to the rafters.

Most recent news reports that there were 10% fewer visitors in LV this September and that one of the Mesquite casinos will be closing down temporarily.

Also the Sands Macau is laying off thousands of people who were involved in their new construction project.

I often get in trouble for having a bad choice or words. I honestly am not trying to argue with anyone or change anyones minds. I honestly don't understand the mindset. And I think it's a good topic for lots of different views. Please don't take anything personal.

I won't repeat my points. I even agree that we haven't seen rock bottom. I agree the big casino owners that pay taxes are hurting. Even the ones with terrorist backing are having layoffs. I agree the tribals are thriving. I agree our retirements are in a tailspin.

At what point is it okay to "pack the rafters" at the indian joints and avoid Las Vegas? Because you never go to a casino with anything other than expendable income, right? We have more expendable income than we did this summer, right?

A long time ago, someone had a very simplified expendable income formula for tribals vs Vegas expenses. Something like 4 evenings at a tribal cost about the same as 1 trip to Vegas. Maybe sub in local instead of tribal to include casinos in Chicago, Detroit, AC or anywhere else.

I am just now starting to notice the weekend traffic die down on weekends where there are not big events. I'm sure the week days are weak. Personally, it's all good for me since I'm not big on crowds. There's a lot of fun to be had here and I'd hate to see anyone miss out ONLY because their TV said that Sands, MGM, Boyd, and Wynn are in trouble and you had better stay home.

Also, I'm probably confusing the topic of How's Vegas Doing, into How Are You Doing. They are related. In a strictly on topic point, The Venetian/Palazzo complex has halted construction on a huge new condo tower. That thing is gonna be an eye sore unless they find a facade to cover it up. Right now, it's a mess.

from another board-station casinos laying off 40 reservation clerks and outsoursing the work to a overseas company. there's some local,loyal support.i could not confirm a source for this other than from another board

Yep, 40 rez agents jobs outsourced overseas. Confirmed on this board.

Ya know, My Vegas trips this year will be the smallest amount I've made in many years. But it has nothing to do with the economy., or how I'm doing personally. I've found other interest and now Vegas (still #1) has to share some of that time and income with my other choices.
I must admit, I like less crowds. On a recent trip to AC, the crowd was down, and it was a beautiful thing! A much better experience then I normally have in AC. I am looking forward to my upcoming Vegas trip, and I am hoping it's not as hectic on the strip.
I also believe, we have not hit bottom yet, and sadly believe we ain't close to the bottom either. M2C

My Sam's Town offers just might relate to the economy.

Sam's usually sends their offers out on an 8x11 piece of copy paper, so the fancy gray stationery was a clue this offer was different. Sam's has invited me ring in the New Year with dinner, dancing and live music -and three nights accomodations. ROTFLMAO - this offer may have more to do with age than gambling history since I've only stayed out there once or twice this year, and I get to chose from three New Years Eve party times of 4pm, 7 pm and 9:30 pm. Talk about catering to seniors<vbg>!

The plain paper offer for January is also different. Usually, Sam's offers 2-3 nights and includes a lunch & dinner buffet - this time they are including dinner for two at Billy Bobs! Hmmmm - wonder if I can find a show I really want to see in January - or if they will repeat this dinner for February or March?

When I dug through my folder looking for the NYE details, I found two other abnormal invitations from Sam's - one for a VP tournament and one for a live poker tournament. What makes these offers stand out is they are the only ones that have improved for me. My Harrahs offers have been consistent, and the Orleans has gotten stingier in the last couple of years. This is just one little example, but it makes me wonder if the local business has gone down even more than the tourist business? Two of these offers came in before Eastside Cannery opened, but that could also be a factor.

Wynn stock almost reached $39 today but is coming down a bit at the last hour of today's trading. Here's something you LV stock followers might be interested in ...

Just about 13 months ago 100% of the stock in Wynn Resort was worth about $17 billion after it reached a five year high of close to $165.00 (US) at the end of Oct 07. Steve Wynn's baby was rolling along and then the bottom fell out. If you banked the

Today that $17 billion could buy you all 21 casino and resort companies listed on Yahoo Finance and still have about four and a half billion dollars (US) in change.

OUCH!!!!

At present, Boyd is at $3.75 .... a wise investment if you have any faith in his Echelon Project getting off the ground (started) within calendar year 2009. I figure that one to be somewhat of a long-shot.

Rumor on the Strip (never rely on rumors unless confirmed by a couple of Strip casino valets) is that one of two of the Strip casinos will be closing soon.

Personally, I put no faith in that one but I've been dumb before and "dumbness" in my family is usually a long term affair.

How about a look at a different company? Herbst Gaming is a privately held company, owned by brothers Ed, Tim and Troy Herbst. Last year they bought the Primm trifecta from MGM for a cool $394 million, which seemed like a good deal at the time. Multiple marketing campaigns failed as gas prices shot up deterring the Las Vegas and California folks from making the trip.

Most of us know that they also own Terribles resort at Paradise and Flamingo, which they have spent a lot of money on in good times. As times are getting tough, this joint isn't doing so well. Neither are the other lesser casinos in Nevada and the midwest.

Herbst Gaming also has a slot route, which is an operation that manages about 7500 gaming machines in restaurants, bars, grocery stores, etc. Normally a good business, it took a big ole tanker with the smoking laws.

That's just the fuse in their explosive situation. You see, they have a little debt of about a billion and a half dollars. They have a bond debt of almost a billion dollars and the bond holders are not happy. They are saying pay up or else. Herbst said in March that it is looking to restructure it's debt or face bankruptcy. The negotiation period expired a couple of months ago and they were granted until Nov 5 to come up with something. Herbst filed with the SEC last week saying the bond holders are demanding principal payments. On Monday, the lenders gave Herbst a little more time to make good or else.

It sounds to me like the bond holders, who put the company in default earlier are saying "pay up or else". Herbst seems to say "or else what? You can't squeeze blood out of a rock." The lenders are about tired of giving extensions and may have to hire big time lawyers to force Herbst into bankruptcy and collect pennies on the dollar of the bonds that are currently worth pennies on the dollar.

The bondholders would probably like to see Herbst sell off their casinos and pay their debts. Bankruptcy is still an option. Look for an answer in less than 10 days. The answer might be "pay up now or else we will give you 3 more weeks to pay up."

OK, I've seen it with my own eyes.... what recession?
I would not say Vegas was at it's fullest I've ever encountered, but it was a lot stronger then I expected it to look. We had wait times for breakfast, lunch and dinner meals. We couldn't get on our favorite banks of machines at times, the crowds where still walking the strip at night.
From the boyd properties we visited, they'll be ok. All where bustling with customers, and not just on the weekends.

I agree. The casino stock ticker isn't a direct reflection of how Las Vegas is doing.

speaking of stock ticker-Will,did you or any of your buddies buy any of the sands corp stock offering? from a high of 122 the stock went for 5.50 they did raise over two billion dollars and a little breathing room for sands corp/venitian.

trip report from another board-"the ratio of cocktail servers to customers 1:1,about 10 people in the whole place" aliente station. wow a locals boycott will kill this place.

At the doctor's office today, I spoke with a man who said that Texas Station was empty last Saturday night. There were only three tables open in the pit, a pai gow, a blackjack and a dice table. We agreed that the Stations have become very tight.
We were at the Hilton tonight it was packed.........but there were plenty of machines available. One of the cocktail waitresses was feeling lucky to have a job......many layoffs around. The pit looked busy. At the box office, the ladies said the CW shows were sold out.
We then went to the Orleans, and it, too, was packed...........but plenty of machines available.......even the ones that are usually very busy. I was there to pick up some tickets for a different evening. One their shows was not selling well. We had paid full price for the tickets, but I've received emails offering them for half price, and heard them advertised a lot on the radio.........and this is for Sunday night. The bars with the big screen tvs tuned to the rodeo were very busy! Lots of cowboys and cowgirls in town. Again, at the Orleans, the pit was busy. No lines at the buffets at either place........almost unheard of for a Friday night at the traditional dinner time.
It looks like lots of folks in town for the rodeo, the fight, the marathon, the big cowboy/western sales and maybe even the Santa Run, but not all of them are gambling.

Tater, do you think the locals are backing away from Stations like they said would because of the way they are treating their employees with outsourcing of jobs and 401k cutbacks?

I don't gamble much. I do see a lot of people in the popular tourist spots at the popular times. There are a lot of popular events in town between now and spring break, so I don't see the volumes of people tapering off that much. I'm sure they will tighten their wallets and make the casino owners cry like OJ or the car company CEOs.

I think there is some of that about the Stations, but I think mostly that the machines are so tight, that it is not really "interesting" to go. The VP tables are going down and down, and it's more profitable to play pennies. More expensive, but more profitable. I'm seeing the same thing at other casinos, too, and we're getting some wild offers from places we haven't been in a very long time, like the Mirage. Comped rooms, play money, and some meals...........and these are not on our regular path. We probably only go to those places when we have guests that want to see them, or we go to a show there. Even Primm sends us invites to shows, rooms and food, and the only time we go to Primm is when we are travelling back and forth to/from California. Also, we don't gamble enough to be in any of the premier slot club levels, except we are Platinum at Harrah's. I get messages on the machine at Red Rock which tells me that I need "only" 200,000 more points that month to be in the Chairman's Club. Heck, we've been Station slot club members since 1994, and I barely have 200,000 points all together!
Speaking of outsourcing, I saw today that while AT&T has laid off something like 12,000 people nationwide, they have opened a tech help center in Summerlin (employing 250) to "bring back some of those outsourced jobs". I wonder if that's going to be the new popular thing..............'about time, if it is! In MHO, of course.

Friend of mine who lives in Henderson just called to tell me about the sale of the TI for approximately $750,000,000 but he wasn't too certain about that exact figure and may be a few million off either way.

He also stated that hotel rooms are available at the Orleans for $17 and at The Palm's for $35 and on the Strip for $50 at the Monte Carlo. But definitely not on weekends.

Wynn stock closed today (Dec 15 '08) at $40.76 while Boyd closed at $4.06.

Isn't anything below $10.00 a share officially called a "Penny Stock"?

Will, don't forget, this time of year is normally a slow time and traditionally, the hotel rates hit rock bottom midweek the last few weeks in December. Until of course, New Years eve.

Yes. Lee!! Thanks!!

But still, pessimism is still somewhat warranted along the Strip and throughout the LV basis as well as throughout the good old USA and I don't think we've hit the bottom jut yet.

Here is some further bad news!

Las Vegas visitor count fell 10.2% in October, the biggest drop since September 2001.

And official studies show that the Las Vegas economy is suffering a massive hangover after several years of cheap gasoline, availability of mortgage money and generous airline service.

The GOOD NEWS is that the average daily room-rates have declined by 14.3% making LV an even bigger bargain than in recent history.

gambling revenues down 22% that's huge,harrahs trying to restructure debt,to avoid bankruptcy per msnbc.lee,enjoy your platinum while you can! i do hope it goes well for wynn.,he seems to be the only one with his s--t together! state of washington casinos revs off 30%,new state budget called ugly for state workers,which i be one!,and state health and wellness programs.what the hell is wellness anyway?new set of home mortgages set to reset at higher rates,forcing more people into bankruptcy,where is the bailout for them??!!have'nt seen the bottom yet? no kidding!

Can anyone who may be somewhat familiar with the stock market tell me how Wynn stock can close at $44.67 on Wednesday and open the following morning at $49.38.

That's a hefty overnight jump for anyone who is capable of purchasing multiple shares.

Does the market for stock sales somehow stay "open" over-night or is the opening price just some arbitrary figure that some expert decides it's worth the next morning?

There is such a thing called after hours trading. I've never done it and only heard from non-experts.

As I understand it, it has several risks. I don't think there is a central "ticker" to track global bid/ask prices. There is no instant cash out option. There was something about delays/timing and not getting the order executed at the exact time and price like you would in regular hours.

I defer to those with more knowledge.

There is both an after-hours session and a pre-market session, and neither is particularly risky IMO. You would not want to put in a "market" order for a stock because the extended session quotes are estimates, but there's no problem or risk in putting in a limit order to buy or sell. The order either is or isn't filled at that price, just as in the standard market hours.

I've kept this question on the back burner and read an article this morning mentioning that the SEC defines a penny stock as having a price between $1.50 and $5.00. LOL, please don't ask which article because I've probably gone through a hundred so far today<g>.

FWIW, somewhere along the way, some other articles mentioned that Las Vegas strip revenue was down 28% in October 2008, but one of those articles also said that figure might be a little extreme since October 2007 was a record high month. This info came from one of the articles I read on MGM-Mirage.

Thanks for that info, ya'll!!! Today's close was $42.21 a share for Wynn and $4.62 for Boyd. (Dec 30, 2008)

By every definition I've ever heard, that makes Boyd a penny stock..... I know nothing about the stock market but I figure Boyd Gaming will climb over $20 a share late next year. And even more if and when they ever get there new project off the ground

I'm just not confident enough to purchase a thousand shares!

Latest great offer was from the Golden Nuggat - $99 for three midweek evenings.

Palms offered $109 per mid week night. But you also receive compt admission for two to the Playboy Club, $50 food credit, $30 Spa credit, $25 gaming credit, plus an upgrade to a Palms Place Studio unit for $50 extra.

They really do treat you right at the Palms from my past experiences.

Las Vegas is doing better than Reno.

Reno cancelled it's fireworks show because they can't afford/justify it.

Wynn closed today at $55.28 ($55.33 after hours).

Boyd closed at $6.18 ($6.25 after hours).

Both have been on the rise since the start of this new year.

Anyone think it will head back down again?

Will,
My 2 cents on the issue is, it will dip back down, probably not quite as low as it was, but we are not out of the woods yet!!! At best any recovery at all, is at least 5 to 6 months out, maybe way longer! It doesn't seem like investors need much reason to pull back on anything.

Somewhere there is a formula that none of us have. That is the actual break even factor for the hotels.

In the good ole days of 5,6, or 7 ago, the rooms were full and the tables were full. Not only did the resorts make money, they made A LOT of money. So much so, they could expand, create unimaginable sights, build high end suites, gaming areas, and restaurants, and still buy other profitable casinos.

Granted the money isn't flowing in like it once did. OTOH, what would it take for Caesars Palace to support the bills of Caesars Palace, or Sam"s Town to pay the Sam's Town bills, or Wynn income to exceed Wynn expenses?

I think that the individual hotels can support themselves much better than the conglomerates can support their top heavy management. And I hope this leads to massive sell off, more competition, and casinos working hard to get the consumer in their doors. If the focus changed to customer service instead of wow factor, I think that things would improve faster.

Well stated, JMT, but once again I must respectfully disagree.

I still don't have the figures to support my contentions but I do think that the hotels are taking a big loss in this present economic situation.

Sometimes it's just not good for business to admit that business is not good.

OK, so now I gotta get that report I recently received that just might support my ill conceived assumptions.

Stand by to stand by......

Today - Wynn stock after hours $36.20. Even after I lost my $5 in some butterfly designed slot machine. One ever happened to those one-armed bandits? Now we're playing with butterflys!

Boyd closed at $4.43. Now that definitely is a penny stock.

Update: The following shows the highs and lows (lows as of January 15, 2009) of various LV Casino stocks.....

Doesn't it seem like the present is the time to buy!!??

Las Vegas Sands $144.56 / $ 6.14
Boyd Gaming $ 48.52 / $ 4.43
Wynn Resorts $164.96 / $ 36.13
MGM Mirage $ 99.75 / $ 9.90

Doing some research in an attempt to answer that.

Is now the time to buy LV casino stocks?

Here are a couple of experts' opinions on the subject matter. (The interpretations of the experts' opinions are my own so please feel free to rebel or offer contrary opinions of your own.

Fact #1: Both the Wynn and the Venetian have big investments in Macau which initially helped to offset some of the financial difficulties that they were both experiencing in Las Vegas.

Their success in Macau is of extreme importance to both these gambling companies.

BUT ... due to the fact that China's citizens have lost way too much money in Macau, the Chinese government has initiated travel restrictions which now only allow China's citizens to travel to Macau a maximum of once every three months resulting in a 10% drop in gaming revenues for the third quarter of 2008.

Fact #2: Competition via new casinos that will be built on a group of beautiful islands of Penghu, which lies in the Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and the east coast of China. And new casino development in Singapore.

This casino expansion throughout the Orient can be compared to the the rise of the Indian casinos in California which are taking the business away from the Reno and Lake Tahoe casinos.

"Build it and they will come!" still holds true a bit, but the one who builds it closer will steal their gambling dollars!.

Casino stocks are presently cheap because their profits are disappearing.

Americans and Asians have dramatically cut back on their gambling forays and until that changes the value of these stocks will still stay low.

think of it this way will-you have 499 million to build a new casino that will cost 500 million.you go to the bank to borrow 1 million and offer them 50% of the project if they give you the million.they say no thanks we don't want to lose a million bucks!buy costco,walmart,procter and gamble,ford.M2C

Wynn was down to $32.66 early this morning but shortly after 11 AM it rose to $35.88 and I have absolutely no idea why it increased by $3.22 over that short period of time other than a lot of people did a lot of buying.

Is anyone here aware that the Encore has a Sky Casino on its 63rd floor consisting of five high roller, gaming salons?

I'd go up and check it out but I'd need to have at least $300,000 to gamble with.

Word is out that it's been very busy since it opened.

RECENT REPORT FROM THE LV JOURNAL - Profits for Nevada casinos fell 69 percent in the last fiscal year that ended June 30, according to a report from the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

Wynn is cutting salaries of salaried employees, cutting hours of hourly employees, cutting out bonuses, and cutting out 401k matching.

Fertittas are suggesting bankruptcy for Station Casinos is they can get a little help from bond holders.

Thanks, again, JMT.

Boyd Stock

Last Wednesday's low ... $3.87
Closed on Friday .. $4.90

Wynn Stock

Last Wednesday's low ... 25.15
Closed on Friday ... 29.67

Looks like some casino buyers did darn well for a change!

Heading to LV today on a business trip and hope to follow through shortly with my personal but unprofessional observations about the current economic situation in that part of the desert.